HBT: Plenty of uncertainty in MLB draft

The Rule 4 draft is today. ?That?s the fancy way of saying ?the regular old draft.? It used to go on until teams got tired of picking, maybe reaching a hundred rounds. Then it was cut to 50. It?s now a crisp 40 rounds. I fully expect you have your team?s 40 picks all mapped out and are, as we speak, painting yourself in team colors and heading to Madison Square Garden for the insanity.

Oh, wait. ?This is not the NFL or NBA so the insanity is kept to a minimum. ?Indeed, no one in this draft is going to be a household name already, let alone someone who is going to immediately change the fortunes of the team which selects them. ?Baseball just doesn?t work like that. ?Which is probably good because I don?t think I could stomach some five-hour glitzy prime-time telecast with baseball?s equivalent of Chris Berman and Mel Kiper barking at me.

Overall, draft experts are saying that there isn?t much in the way of extreme impact talent a la Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg, so unless you?re a big fan of amateur baseball or religiously read Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein or Keith Law, you probably don?t know a ton of these dudes. Confession: I don?t either. It?s enough to keep up with the majors and high minors. I?m sort of lost when it comes to the draft ? there are people whose full time job it is to follow it ? so we?re reading the same stuff in that regard.

It?s even more complicated this year, as several new rules besides the round limits are in place:

Under baseball?s new collective bargaining agreement, teams will have a pool of bonus money from which to sign players. The Astros, for example, have about $11.2 million to use as bonuses on their 11 picks through the 10th round. The Twins, who have 13 picks in 10 rounds, have about $12.4 million to use for bonuses.?Teams face a punitive tax and the possibility of losing draft picks if they stray from the prescribed bonuses.

All of the teams have been thinking about this since the new CBA was signed, but I imagine it?s still kind of scary for them. ?Add in to it the fact that the signing deadline for drafted players has been moved up to mid-July, and there is added pressure.

So, lots of uncertainty. But I do know this much: the Astros pick first and are widely expected to take?Stanford right-hander Mark Appel, who (a) happens to throw close to 100 m.p.h.; and (b) is from Houston. ?And there is nothing as old and time-tested in the baseball draft as tall, hard-throwing Texas pitchers, so it?s not all unusual.

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